Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
August It's technically been August for a little over an hour now, so I guess it's time to start a new header. and with that comes an AoI! When will the fun stop? Cyclone1(01:09 UTC -1/08/2007) Week1 AoI: North Gulf Stalled out frontal boundary in the Gulf. TWC has mentioned this, saying that this area needs to be watched for the formation of a possible low. A few models develop this, taking into the Panhandle as a depression. Interesting? Cyclone1(01:09 UTC -1/08/2007) :Not unless you're making vacation plans for the Panhandle. -- SkyFury 04:10, 1 August 2007 (UTC) ::I think more likely a storm will form EAST of Florida. -Winter123 04:24, 1 August 2007 (UTC) :::No, I think the Gulf is definitely the place to watch. Just west of Florida. Upper level winds are nearly perfect, SST's are very warm, all we need is one flare up of convection, then all eyes on the Gulf. Cyclone1(13:27 UTC -1/08/2007) ::::Convection flaring up nicely, now. Cyclone1(14:21 UTC -1/08/2007) :::::Recon is flying out tomorrow. (What? Cyclone1, you're seeing things!!) Nope, it's true. This will most likely be 90L later today. Cyclone1(15:45 UTC -1/08/2007) ::::::I was just saying because the GFS develops it basically on land, whereas the CMC moves it over florida before blowing it up into a hurricane, which is the scenario I'd prefer. I doubt this will be a TD if it moves onto land like the models predict. -Winter123 18:42, 1 August 2007 (UTC) :::::::Too early to make a judgment on this one. It's definately an area to watch. Right now, though it doesn't even have a low pressure center. -- SkyFury 21:13, 1 August 2007 (UTC) Gone. Cyclone1(22:20 UTC -4/08/2007) :Yeah, I never did get what the NHC was so excited about. Early on, I thought it might have had a chance, but I wrote it off a couple of days ago. -- SkyFury 03:23, 5 August 2007 (UTC) Week 2 AoI: East Carribean See 05L AoI: North of Bermuda What the frick is this? We appear to have a very intense ball of deep convection in the middle of nowhere. It doesn't even really show up on the surface analysis. Logic wants to tell me it's nothing, but that's a lot of bright colors for an aimless thunderhead. -- SkyFury 03:16, 10 August 2007 (UTC) :?!?!?!?!?! It looks like it just blew up from the end of a front under extreme shear and created a favorable upper level environment for itself. It looks like it already has a broad LLC because it was part of a front, and again, all shear is passing north of it (It's way up over Northern Vermont...) as it somehow blew up an upper level High over itself. Could it be an out-of-nowhere Dean? Maybe this year WILL be interesting after all! :D :Great catch by the way! -Winter123 05:57, 10 August 2007 (UTC) ::Hmm... that's way cool! First of all, an AoI I didn't declare (wtf?!) and, it came from ntohing! Chances are likely low, but man, it is impressive. Cyclone1(14:17 UTC -10/08/2007) :::GODDANGIT! All the fun stuff happens when I'm away! But, yeah, not only does the NHC seem completely oblivious to it, but it's there, it's strong, and I think it's rotating. This one might have a shot. :::Now, can someone please tell me how Chantal was? 68.100.190.56 ::::Aw, it's nowhere to be seen anymore? Gone as quickly as it came up/. -Winter123 18:53, 10 August 2007 (UTC) :::::Oh it's there, but the shear tore it apart and scattered its remains across the north Atlantic. -- SkyFury 21:45, 10 August 2007 (UTC) Just a blob. Gone, likely not coming back. Cyclone1(22:03 UTC -10/08/2007) :That's one wierd looking blob. Not looking like much now, but still, it should be dying, right? (Not trying to imply anything). It's not going to develop, but it's not going away either... 68.100.190.56 04L.Dean AoI: Wave about to come off africa at ~10N Many, if not all models agree we will see a Tropical Storm just off the coast of Africa by Monday. This could be our storm to start the Cape Verde Season! *crosses fingers* -Winter123 05:52, 10 August 2007 (UTC) Could someone please post a link to where you all go to look at the development models? Is this just from WeatherUnderground, FNMOC, or are there some really cool sites that I'm unaware of? 134.163.255.11 14:19, 10 August 2007 (UTC) :You mean something like this? Anyway, conditions ahead of this wave are really favorable for development. This could be very interesting. Cyclone1(14:22 UTC -10/08/2007) ::Either the models have forgottent their ocean couplings again (*cough*Ioke*cough*) or there is something strange out there that I cannot see. 68.100.190.56 :::Yeah it looks like it's being eaten away on the north side by dry air just like all the others. I can't see this developing anymore... -Winter123 18:51, 10 August 2007 (UTC) ::::If that bundle of showers gains any organization by the time it reaches the Windward Islands, call me, but until then, I'm not all that impressed. I've seen tons of waves just like this one look quite good coming off of Africa but then just break apart as soon as they pass the Cape Verdes. -- SkyFury 21:52, 10 August 2007 (UTC) No dry air. At all. None. Zip. Every model, (please take special notice on the word every) develops this. It'll be interesting. Cyclone1(21:59 UTC -10/08/2007) :Plenty of shear though http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7shr.html. This wave's under 30-40 knots of it. That's pretty fierce. -- SkyFury 03:36, 11 August 2007 (UTC) ::ARGH! THIS THING WON'T LET ME POST, BUT IF THIS GETS THROUGH, IT'S LOOKING PRETTY NICE GODDARNIT! Hold on, did this get through? Ok then, it is (look on meteosat for East Africa) looking pretty nice. 68.100.190.56 :::Hm it does look pretty good. Keep an eye on this it might be a TD in 24 hours if it keeps looking like this. On that note, I'm off. -Winter123 07:51, 11 August 2007 (UTC) It's been firing deep convection for a while now (~12 hrs). That's persistence. 90L should be classified at anytime. Cyclone1(12:56 UTC -11/08/2007) :Interestingly enough, the models are seeming less ecstatic the more this thing develops. I put it as a TS going into the Carribean, curving ever so slightly to the north. The major models, however, agree than an area of low pressure will develop of the coast of Africa (this does not count that last one, Ukmet, because as far as I can tell it has a mental retardation problem;, it does make a low, just doesn't close it off) and move into the central Atlantic at least at TS strength. As we've seen earlier this season (we have, trust me) the models do often underpredict, so I predict Dean, maximum cat 2, minimum TS. It's looking that good, that consistently. By the way, the NHC has recognized it, and as a "High-amplitude tropical wave", so it must mean that they've decided it's time to give up their vacation and start working again (has anyone else noticed they don't show much excitement in their updates?).68.100.190.56 ::There already is a low off the coast. It's now a development game. I predict this could be a potential threat for Puerto Rico, and eventually Florida. Cyclone1(16:57 UTC -11/08/2007) 90L.INVEST The official Navy site is down, but it's on the back up. Behold 90L! Picture won't show up, I hope it's for the Africa wave. Cyclone1(19:23 UTC -11/08/2007) :Ok, the link doesn't work, but trust me it's up. Cyclone1(19:30 UTC -11/08/2007) ::Quikscat shows a closed low! Tropical Depression by definition (kinda). Cyclone1(22:04 UTC -11/08/2007) :::Latest TWO: A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. :::Ahh, sh*t! I do not like the sound of that. The wave looks pretty unassuming right now but that's one of the things I don't like. A lot of feared names have formed the exact same way. Of course, so have a lot of fish-spinners but still, that's the Devil's Breeding Ground out there. -- SkyFury 23:19, 11 August 2007 (UTC) GFDL and HWRF both develop this into at least a category two. HWRF, possible three. Cyclone1(01:00 UTC -12/08/2007) :More important, where is it going? The tracking model site I've been using isn't working, so that adds to the discomfort. If it wants to turn out to sea and strengthen into a Category 4, I'd love to see it. That stuff's fun to watch, but I don't want it to get big and hit a place where it can hurt people. -- SkyFury 02:24, 12 August 2007 (UTC) ::The last time periods for the model show it just at the Virgin Islands. Judging by the location of the Bermuda High, it's likely start curving to the northwest shortly thereafter. Won't know for at least a couple of days (if it does turn into a hurricane) if it would threaten anybody. Wxdiva 03:05, 12 August 2007 (UTC) :::Hmm, that's interesting, thanks. -- SkyFury 03:09, 12 August 2007 (UTC) ::::It could recurve easily though...but still I can definitely see (major?) Hurricane Dean coming out of this... CrazyC83 03:17, 12 August 2007 (UTC) It's not recurving. Cyclone1(14:18 UTC -12/08/2007) :The latest TWO says a tropical depression could form later today! The Cape Verde season is open for business. Cyclone1(15:07 UTC -12/08/2007) ::And it could get quite uncomfor06:07, 13 August 2007 (UTC)table if this thing develops and heads for the Virgins like Wxdiva said. There have been four Deans, only one was a hurricane (1989). The Atlantic's still waiting for its first. All other northern hemisphere basins have had at least one, in fact all northern hemisphere basins have had a major hurricane form (Gonu, Yutu, Man-Yi, Usagi and Flossie), the ATL's holdin' up the show. -- SkyFury 18:28, 12 August 2007 (UTC) ::If all the models I looked at this morning hold true, it just might. Is there any site that gives a general idea of sea surface temperatures? Wxdiva 21:19, 12 August 2007 (UTC) :::Answered my own question...http://www.wunderground.com/tropical. Posted for your convenience! Wxdiva 21:39, 12 August 2007 (UTC) ::::http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg The satellite picture continues to improve. I would imagine if the current organization lasts or gets just a little bit better that a depression will be declared. Right now it looks pretty darn good. -- SkyFury 23:02, 12 August 2007 (UTC) NHC says a TD could form at anytime. $100 bucks says 11:00pm upgrade. Cyclone1(23:08 UTC -12/08/2007) :Hey, I'd love to be $100 ahead but I'm a simple, low income man and don't bet that high. I've learned that very little is a slam dunk in the tropics. I've seen things seemingly right on the verge of forming mysteriously fall apart and not amount to anything. We shall see what 11 pm brings. -- SkyFury 23:46, 12 August 2007 (UTC) ::Slightly off-topic: The meteorologist on the local news said that if this does form into a hurricane, but turns into a fish-spinner, it would drive some cooler air into the country. Proof that hurricanes are good sometimes. (I for one am tired of the Midwest feeling like a sauna) Wxdiva 00:55, 13 August 2007 (UTC) :Well, I was out roaming around Atlantic Canada for the past 5 days, and I was pretty surprised to see 90L looking so good. It's entering a very low shear area with warm SST's, and it's outflow is very nice. I also expect Tropical Depression Four at least by 5:30 tomorrow. Probably 10:30 tonight. Cainer91 00:59, 13 August 2007 (UTC) ::Uhh, are you kidding me? Now that's a beautiful part of the world. I'd almost give my right arm to be in Lockeport, Nova Scotia right now. Instead I gotta get up tomorrow at 6:45 in the morning and make the 45 minute drive to school. That's a depressing thought. Wind shear is aparently hindering development of 90L right now although I keep seeing more bright colors on the IR every time I look. -- SkyFury 02:48, 13 August 2007 (UTC) :::Where did anyone say anything about Nova Scotia? Anyway, yeah, not much new to say. Just have to agree with everyone else; it's looking pretty damn good! Bob rulz 06:06, 13 August 2007 (UTC) :::Nevermind, I think I see what you were saying. It just didn't quite connect. Anyway, this is offtopic, so I'll stop now. Bob rulz 06:07, 13 August 2007 (UTC) :Gone from the navy site... http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi RoswellAtup 12:17, 13 August 2007 (UTC) 04L.NONAME Models initialize it as TD4. Should be official soon. -- WmE 12:57, 13 August 2007 (UTC) :Yep, I lost $100 bucks, but hey. We'll still have a depression by 11. Cyclone1(13:35 UTC -13/08/2007) ::It's official now... TD4... NOAA even brings this depression into a Cat. 2 hurricane in 5 days... RoswellAtup 14:58, 13 August 2007 (UTC) Tropical Depression Four Now up on the NHC site. Forecast to reach 90 knots in 5 days. This thing is dangerous. Cainer91 15:00, 13 August 2007 (UTC) :I'm betting that it would dissipate in the next 24 hours RoswellAtup 15:17, 13 August 2007 (UTC) ::Wanna bet money? 100 bucks says that this will NOT dissipate. I need my money back. Amyway, it's looking like it could be wanting to take an Ivan-esque path... O_O Cyclone1(16:56 UTC -13/08/2007) :::Oh man, it looks like the Atlantic is about to quit playing nice. The current forecast path is very similar to that of Georges in 1998, which killed 600 people and who knows what it's going to do after that. We could have a very dangerous hurricane in the central Caribbean by the end of the week. -- SkyFury 20:27, 13 August 2007 (UTC) :it's now disorganized {http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi} RoswellAtup 22:16, 13 August 2007 (UTC) ::Not anymore! Looking very good! Possibly Dean by 11. Cyclone1(01:53 UTC -14/08/2007) :::Not yet upgraded... betcha it will dissipate in the next 48 hours RoswellAtup 7:42, 14 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Quikscat shows a few 55kt barbs near the center. Bethca it won't dissipate in the next 48 hours. Cyclone1(11:47 UTC -14/08/2007) Tropical Storm Dean And it's now official - we have a D. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:08, 14 August 2007 (UTC) :Yep, and with the D, models are no longer calling for a recurve. Cyclone1(16:30 UTC -14/08/2007) ::This one is making a lot of people nervous, including me. -- SkyFury 18:42, 14 August 2007 (UTC) :::Holy Freaking S**t! 68-100-190-56 22:54, 14 August 2007 (UTC) (replacement for "new" IP number) ::::Just hope Dean doesn't hit Hispaniola as a Category 5. Haiti can't even deal with Category 1 hurricanes. 69.86.16.159 21:34, 14 August 2007 (UTC) :::::Haiti can't even deal with much lower than that (ex: 2004 Tropical Wave and Jeanne, which spanned all of TD to Cat1 during Hispaniola). As long as Dean passes quickly, we won't have to worry about a re-Jeanne or, heaven forbid, a re-Flora. Jake52 My talk 01:34, 15 August 2007 (UTC) 900MBAR?! It's Ioke all over again! Cyclone1(22:08 UTC -14/08/2007) :Yeah, I don't get it either. However, other models seem to turn into a major hurricane anyway. I almost think we can make Major Hurricane Dean :But not really (thank god!) 68-100-190-56 22:58, 14 August 2007 (UTC) ::It could be. With each advisory, the track forecast gets even worse. It keeps expanding west...wrong direction! The situation in the tropics right now can be summed up by the words of an aged rocker: "Send lawyers, guns and money, the sh*t has hit the fan." -- SkyFury 23:51, 14 August 2007 (UTC) :::It still looks kind of sad on infrared imagery. But...that'll change soon enough. This is the first storm we really have to look out for this year. Bob rulz 03:30, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :I guess it could be upgraded into a hurricane in the next forecast. I'm also guessing that it would be the last time a storm will be named Dean because it's going to be retired. RoswellAtup 04:17, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :: HWRF and GFDL as cat 4 + hitting Yucatan. EDIT: Not anymore, but I'm doubtful of the models anyway.68-100-190-56 10:49, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::: S**t s**t s**t! I don't even WANT to know what "entire grid undefined" means (even though it probably has nothing to do with Dean). 68-100-190-56 13:22, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Whoa! I don't like what the models are doing with this. Anyway, it won't become a hurricane today, I don't believe. Winds are still at 50. Cyclone1(14:12 UTC -15/08/2007) If no-one minds, I'm going to put up some links to models I find particularly disturbing: CMC, GFS, Apparently a homegrown model, FSU MMS (listed as 'mm5fsu'), and last, an "experimental" WRF. 68-100-190-56 14:43, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :(first edit conflict of the year!) It's up to 60mph. Hurricane by 11 tonight? (NOT betting!) Cyclone1(14:46 UTC -15/08/2007) ::God... If this thing improves at this rate, we will. If we do... I don't want to think about what it'll do if GFS has the correct track. 68-100-190-56 15:04, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::I spy with my little eye, what looks like a little eye trying to form. http://img104.imageshack.us/img104/4466/avncu6.jpg (link is not dynamic.) Cyclone1(15:41 UTC -15/08/2007) ::::I think that I read something from the NHC recently that talked about an eye beginning to form. Continues to look better and better. 68-100-190-56 15:48, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::::The five PM intensity forecast is rather chilling: ...THERE DO NOT SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF DEAN...GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL HURRICANE. -- SkyFury 21:02, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::::::O_O Cyclone1(21:24 UTC -15/08/2007) If it gets into the gulf (32 degrees) it'll raise hell. If it hits Texas, the coast will become a disaster area. 68-100-190-56 21:42, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :Look at that (next to the high-topped thunderstorm).Doesn't that look like a forming eye? I say forming because convection still surrounds it. Winds 65 mph. Also, forecast to become a hurricane next advisory (looks like it will make it tonight [did I mention that that's what I'' said?]) 68-100-190-56 21:52, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::It looks to be a small storm, at least right now, which helps. The tropical storm force winds don't extent out very far. I don't think any of us will be awake to see it become a hurricane. Even at the rate it's going, it probably won't become a hurricane until early tomorrow morning. Dean's projected path and forecast intensity remind me of Hurricane Emily in 2005. Mexico was definately not having any fun during that little windstorm. (And Erin reminds me of a little bit of Charley in 1998, although weaker.) Ah, the Dog Days of summer! -- SkyFury 23:48, 15 August 2007 (UTC) Update on some models, mainly the same, GFS threatening Texas with Dean (god I hate the GFS right now) 68-100-190-56 00:00, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :Dean is at 70mph, 986mbar! So close to hurricane status! First storm to go below the 990's! 'Cyclone1(02:42 UTC -16/08/2007) ::HOw come the NHC says that Dean's pressure is only 991mbar? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/160240.shtml RoswellAtup 02:50, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :::Overnight and it's a hurricane. Interesting with HWRF, it seems to suggest that Dean will die, against all possible reasoning. GFDL slight Cat 4 (probably only cat three, considering wind level), GFS looks like a Cat 4 (curves toward Texas through Yucatan), others look the same. Well, we found our first hurricane. 68-100-190-56 02:52, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :I'm predicting that Dean would be remain a tropical storm tomorrow due to shear, dry air and anticyclonic winds and would dissipate within 48 hours RoswellAtup 03:07, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::Hate to disappoint, but all signs point to a hurricane tomorrow. Such is life. Wxdiva 05:02, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Hurricane Dean Although the NHC page is not showing reports, the headline says they're issuing advisories on T.S.Erin and Dean, which they're calling a hurricane. This jives with the NRL site, which says it has 75mph and 987 mb. Jake52 My talk 09:28, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :Officially Hurricane dean on newest report, forecast to remain a hurricane for the rest of its life. I believe the above values are correct as well (though pressure may be slightly lower). 68-100-190-56 10:59, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::Model update: Cat 4 hit on Yucatan, enters Gulf,and curves northward. Might kill Texas :(. Worst of all, one of the lesser models shows that there might be a potential Cat 2 - Cat 4 hit on Haiti as a small storm. The only models that don't favor this are the ones that haven't been for a while, and they seem to go against all possible evidence. This is not up to date, however, as these models were run at 0000 today, while I believe Dean became a Hurricane slightly afterwards. Also, on an interesting note, the models that have the pressure most correct are the worst ones. 68-100-190-56 11:06, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :::Sorry for so many posts in such a short time, but I just got on, and am getting incremental info. Anyway, Dean is the nicest looking storm I have seen in a long time (in the Atlantic), its got just the tiniest little bit of an eye forming, clearly noticeable on IR. Watches are up for almost all of the Lesser Antilles. 68-100-190-56 11:17, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::There's some nice banding going on, and an eye is starting to form. It's also a pretty small storm. This thing is going to become a monster (sorry I said it, but I don't see any reason why it won't!). Bob rulz 12:27, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :::::I say 65% Cat 4 if it doesn't make into the Gulf, and if it does, I don't want to discuss the possibilities right now. 68-100-190-56 12:31, 16 August 2007 (UTC) It has a visible eye. ''Cyclone1(12:50 UTC -16/08/2007) :Pinhole? 'Cyclone1(12:51 UTC -16/08/2007) ::From what I can see. 68-100-190-56 14:10, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :::Oh god no! Anything but that! 68-100-190-56 14:16, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Words cannot describe my reaction to that model run... Cyclone1(14:40 UTC -16/08/2007) :::::If that model run turns out correct, we might as well just nuke New Orleans and get it over with. The aftermath wouldn't be much different. Bob rulz 17:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC) NHC says it'll reach Cat 4 if it doesn't go into the Gulf. This is game over, man. Game over. 68-100-190-56 14:53, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :Further forecast update puts Dean on a more northward track. The last one was more northward than the one before it. Trend? 68-100-190-56 15:13, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::Eye more defined now, but it is certainly a weird looking storm. Organized, but weird. 68-100-190-56 17:10, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :::Recon's in the storm now. The wind field looks to be expanding, and the storm itself (not the wind field) is getting huge. The outer rain bands should be affecting the Lesser Antilles within a few hours. Bob rulz 17:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::I think you're right. A monster. CMC puts it on an Emily-esque track, only stronger. By the way, it is looking very nice lately. GFDL puts it almost at Cat 5 as well, and at Central Louisiana (not nearly as bad) landfall. 68-100-190-56 17:49, 16 August 2007 (UTC) HWRF puts it at 887 hPa! 68-100-190-56 18:33, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :Already Cat 2, getting stronger, bearing down on the Lesser Antilles. 68-100-190-56 20:44, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::I don't know about those wild Category 5 predictions, but I do know that NHC saying that "there appear to be no factors that would prevent further intensification of Dean during the forecast period" is not good. Jamaica and Mexico should be very concerned. On its current forecast track, Dean could be a very destructive hurricane. The more and more I look at it, the more and more it reminds me of Emily, which, because of great preparation, wasn't too bad so who knows. -- SkyFury 21:12, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :::Well, HWRF almost surely has it wrong, and it's probably not that bad, but it definitely could become worse than Emily, and Hispaniola and the Gulf Coast should still be very attentive to this storm. BTW, all but two models take it to what looks like a Cat 4. 68-100-190-56 21:49, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::It's dragging out now, it might be just the sunlight, and the eye is looking pretty well-defined on convection IR. I think it'll probably compact that tail and grow out from the center, because at this point is way bigger than the real "Storm" part. BTW, Lesser Antilles experiencing outer rainbands. 68-100-190-56 23:14, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Quoting from Jeff Masters's blog, where he doesn't have so much of a history for making over-the-top statements...: "Two storms in the historical record with a similar tracks and intensities to what we might expect for Dean in the Caribbean were Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Hurricane Ivan of 2004."--65.94.45.136 01:21, 17 August 2007 (UTC) :This is starting to get intense. BTW, it is losing it's outer bands a little, and it's reforming it's eye, so tomorrow we should have Cat 2-3 well defined eyed Dean. 68-100-190-56 01:48, 17 August 2007 (UTC) ::Hell. Yes. I'm seriously not liking what I see.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:50, 17 August 2007 (UTC) :::God, all models still take it to strong Cat 4 / Cat 5, and it's giving HWRF technical difficulties. 68-100-190-56 01:54, 17 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Yeah, the people of the Caribbean probably feel like hostages watching a captor load and cock his gun. And they live on islands. Unless they have a plane ticket, they got nowhere to go. -- SkyFury 02:17, 17 August 2007 (UTC) :::::The islands all have higher ground they can go to though, and they aren't that prone to storm surge. CrazyC83 02:49, 17 August 2007 (UTC) ::Though the NHC doesn't say it directly, it seem to think that Dean is weakening... Satellite pictures are now showing that Dean is beginning to disorganize... RoswellAtup 03:45, 17 August 2007 :::Sorry, no deal. There's no hint of anything that might suggest that that I can see. Dean, at least this morning, is looking like a hellbender (god I love that word!) 68-100-190-56 11:02, 17 August 2007 (UTC) ::::By hellbender, I mean Cat 4 (it looks like one, check it out). On an even less light note, four of the models say Major Hurricane hits Texas, with two suggesting a cat 4/cat 5 hit on Houston, another hitting similar intensities near Corpus Christi, with another hitting very close to the Texas border in Mexico. Ukmet, in a loss of all hope whatsoever, says CAT 2 HIT IN HAITI FOLLOWED BY CAT 4 (maybe cat 3) HIT ON HOUSTON! If that's not scary, what is (besides that disturbing GFDL run a few days ago)? 68-100-190-56 11:09, 17 August 2007 (UTC) Eye looks beautiful now. 68-100-190-56 11:52, 17 August 2007 (UTC) :Actually, Roswell, the reason is because it is actually forecast to weaken, then strengthen (I'm not sure why). The wind probs chart says 40% for one after 24 hours, but the next time mentioned says 40% Cat 4-5. ::Direct hit on Martinique. Damage to a children's hospital in St. Lucia. Dean has strengthened. 105mph, 964mbar. Cyclone1(14:59 UTC -17/08/2007) :::From the discussion. IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. Cyclone1(15:04 UTC -17/08/2007) ::::Oh, geez. The wind speed forecasts show that 48 hours from now Dean is more likely to be a category four-five than anything. That is crazy, guys. From what I can remember, Katrina, Rita and Wilma didn't even have that kind of support. Cyclone1(15:14 UTC -17/08/2007) :::::Actually, 40% for 48 hours isn't unheard of.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:16, 17 August 2007 (UTC) Not "unheard" of. That's the important word. Anyway, here's the description that pretty much wraps up the "holy s**t" aspect of Dean: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES (That's really large) ...295 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. 964, as I remember, can often be borderline Cat 3, and by the way, that eye looks small, doesn't it? One thing that's annoying here is that for three days we've gotten the same bad information from the models (not necessarily for NHC)- The Caribbean (and perhaps Texas) is screwed. Oh wait, one more thing: I don't remember a cat 2 storm ever getting this much attention from internet users. 68-100-190-56 16:21, 17 August 2007 (UTC) :Dean is bombing out! Recon found 115kts flight level! Note: That's not surface winds, but WOW! Cyclone1(16:39 UTC -17/08/2007) ::Wouldn't that be another few mph (3-5)? BTW, the GFDL says winds around 185, which is dubious with pressure of 918, but then again, you saw the problems with HWRF yesterday, didn't you? 68-100-190-56 16:46, 17 August 2007 (UTC) :::3-5? 115kts equals 132mph. Cyclone1(16:50 UTC -17/08/2007) :::: 3-5 EXTRA, as in ANOTHER few mph. 68-100-190-56 16:55, 17 August 2007 (UTC) Oh. Well either way, Dean is intesnifying. O_O Cyclone1(17:00 UTC -17/08/2007) :I hate having to scroll up so far to reach the edit thing. Can we put in another "Hurricane Dean so we don't have to? :But seriously, it does get creepy when you have a storm that is almost universally expected to reach at least strong Category 4. 68-100-190-56 17:11, 17 August 2007 (UTC) Hurricane Dean, Continued Just so we can reach the "edit" button easier. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 17:47, 17 August 2007 (UTC) :Thanks! 68-100-190-56 17:59, 17 August 2007 (UTC) 05L.Erin AoI: East Carribean Interesting little blob in the Carib here. A few (that means multiple) global models develop this sucker. Conditions are good and getting better ahead of it. Could be a Gulf storm. Thoughts? Cyclone1(01:59 UTC -9/08/2007) :Thoughts- In a normal season I'd say it's a no-brainer this will develop. Almost no shear and great convection. But it's 2007 so right when you think it's about to be named it'll just go 'poof' and blue sky is all that will be left -Winter123 04:49, 9 August 2007 (UTC) ::Haha, excellent point. Joe Bastardi expects a tropical storm at least, and the EURO, CMC, and NOGAPS models all develop it. Maybe it'll be like TS Bret in 05, but stronger and further north. Cyclone1(21:39 UTC -9/08/2007) :::Are you talking about the thing near Jamaica? It is FAR too early to say anything with regards to this one. Predicting it to be a tropical storm is like predicting a fetus to grow into the man that finds a cure for cancer. -- SkyFury 03:16, 10 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Apparently, the NHC seems to really like this fetus. It puts it as a "High-amplitude tropical wave" (just like the one off of Africa), and only recently took it off of the development page. It's been pretty consistent with it's doings, though, so I think, a day later, it is only SOMEWHAT too early to say something about this one (no offense). 68.100.190.56 The 12Z NAM shows a well established tropical storm moving into the Gulf soon. I know, I know, it's the NAM, which is less reliable than the CMC, but still it's interesting. Slow development means just that....sloooow development. Cyclone1(16:59 UTC -11/08/2007) :Convection has significantly increased over the past six hours, but it still doesn't have a low pressure center associated with it. -- SkyFury 02:27, 12 August 2007 (UTC) - I put this in because it tracked into the gulf before developing. 68-100-190-56 11:16, 15 August 2007 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Yep. Located in the Yucatan Strait at the moment. Looks very marginal; but it does seem to be consolidating more and more. We'll see what the 10:30 advisory says about it. Cainer91 14:32, 13 August 2007 (UTC) :Could Erin come out from this one? RoswellAtup 14:40, 13 August 2007 (UTC) ::Well, it's tough to say right now, but it does have several things going for it: the ULL that was inhibiting development is moving away, shear is low, and SST's are practically boiling. However, right now it's just a trough of low pressure: no LLC or anything, just an area of convection. However, if it moves slowly enough, it is possible that it could develop. Cainer91 14:55, 13 August 2007 (UTC) :::I'm saying that this needs to be watched closer than TD4 right now. WE could get TD5 from this before all is said and done. Cyclone1(16:58 UTC -13/08/2007) UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. From the TWO. Could we get 2 depressions today?! Cyclone1(17:01 UTC -13/08/2007) :The Atlantic has awakened. If this thing wants to come up through the Panhandle and into Georgia, I'd welcome it. We desperately need some cooling off down here. -- SkyFury 20:29, 13 August 2007 (UTC) ::Sorry Eric, it's a Texan. Cyclone1(20:49 UTC -13/08/2007) :::NRL has 91L almost as strong as Tropical Depression Four: 30 knots and 1006 mbars. But, there is literally one thunderstorm, so it's not a tropical depression yet. But watch out when the convection does start to build. Cainer91 02:12, 14 August 2007 (UTC) ::::It's sort of runnin' outta water. The Gulf Coast isn't that far. Cyclone1 seems to think it's headed to Texas, but it lookes to me like it's going north. -- 24.98.83.29 02:35, 14 August 2007 (UTC) TCFA issued. Jake52 My talk 06:06, 14 August 2007 (UTC) :What's a TCFA? RoswellAtup 07:21, 14 August 2007 (UTC) ::Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. Most, if not all of the models bring it to Texas, it's not just me. Cyclone1(11:45 UTC -14/08/2007) :::It's looking very good, and there's no doubt in my mind that it will be upgraded to Tropical Depression Five at the 5:30 update. Thunderstorm activity is consolidating, it's moving slow enough, and the SST's and shear are perfect. There isn't really anything to stop it. Lucky that it only has a couple of days to intensify. Cainer91 15:54, 14 August 2007 (UTC) Yeah, the latest TWO, says a TD may be forming. Cyclone1(16:33 UTC -14/08/2007) :Well in the gulf these couple of days can be enough to create a pretty potent storm, or even a hurricane. -- WmE 18:04, 14 August 2007 (UTC) ::I would be pretty surprised if this thing becomes a hurricane. I see a 45-50 knot Tropical Storm Erin crossing the Panhandle in three or four days. -- SkyFury 18:45, 14 August 2007 (UTC) :::It's going towards Texas. I'd say a landfall south of Houston as a moderate TS. Cyclone1(22:01 UTC -14/08/2007) ::::I'm more inclined to say Louisiana, say anywhere from Sabine Pass to Grand Chenier. I agree with you on probable intensity (40-50 knots). Its organization continues to improve. I would not be surprised to see it classified as Tropical Depression Five by the 11pm advisory period. It sure looks the part. -- SkyFury 23:55, 14 August 2007 (UTC) 05L.NONAME :Well, according to NRL, we now have Tropical Depression Five. And, what a cute little ball of convection it has! I expect Erin by at least 5:30 PM tomorrow. Cainer91 02:00, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::Reminds me of Bonnie, but going the other way. Cyclone1(02:13 UTC -15/08/2007) Tropical Depression Five Offical. Tropical Storm Watches issued. Cyclone1(02:37 UTC -15/08/2007) :Just call me Carnac ;). Cyclone1, I believe you called for TD Four at an 11pm advisory, but that didn't happen until later. I called it spot on. Just a mild ego trip, please excuse me ;). Texas! Why Texas? We need the rain up here in the southeast, they don't need another drop down there. We've been in 100-degree heat for the past week and the tropics aren't helping. -- SkyFury 03:18, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::Mother Nature is not being kind to the southern U.S. this year. Bob rulz 03:28, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::This is not the kind of tropical activity the world needs (Flossie, Dean, 05L Erin , and Sepat). 68-100-190-56 10:52, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::::LOL Eric. The reason I say Texas is because... well, the big cone that the NHC makes... it's pointing towards Texas. I would LOVE a nice TD for the southeast, but it's just not in the cards. Cyclone1(14:09 UTC -15/08/2007) :::::No, I was asking, lightheartedly, why the storm was going to Texas and not to the Panhandle. On another note, I'm sorry, I have a hard time buying the recon plane's report and I think NHC does too. It looks like a 30 kt depression that's about to become a storm, not a disorganized thing that's barely a tropical cyclone. -- SkyFury 15:13, 15 August 2007 (UTC) Forecast is 45 mph around Corpus Christi (one of the worst affected areas in Texas's anti-drought). It might actually be almost a good (not to climatology) thing if Dean took an unexpected northerly turn straight through the ridge. I went to Dulles yesterday and the dust was worse than it is on the Serengeti. It would be great if they had a system for pumping Texas water to the rest of the country. 68-100-190-56 15:24, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :(Edit conflicts! Can't get a word in edgewise!) I don't know why it's going towards Texas, it just is. Sorry if my response didn't seem lioghthearted, it was meant to be. Cyclone1(15:28 UTC -15/08/2007) ::-Conflicts? Nothing going on here that I can see :) 68-100-190-56 15:32, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::Edit conflicts are when two people try to post at the same time, the second poster gets the cold shoulder and has to post again. Cyclone1(15:34 UTC -15/08/2007) ::::No, I meant I couldn't see it. Literally. Probably because I haven't been looking at the times *can't see past his own nose without thinking about something else :). (It was kind of subtle, but it was also a reference to TCs, as in, "there's nothing going on out there). And now look at this, there's these two (sorry, THREE) whole posts of complete nothingness. Should we delete them? 68-100-190-56 15:39, 15 August 2007 (UTC) Nah they're fine. Cyclone1(15:45 UTC -15/08/2007) Tropical Storm Erin 10:15 (CDT) update brings it to a tropical storm! Cyclone1(15:28 UTC -15/08/2007) :That fast? That's six hours early. Same thing with Dean, it shouldn't be 60 mph right now either. Well, any news is good news except for Texas. 68-100-190-56 15:31, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::Yep, that fast. Recon found TS winds right after the Adv was issued. Cyclone1(15:33 UTC -15/08/2007) :::Erin looks like it may curve more northwestward soon. Cyclone1(15:52 UTC -15/08/2007) ::::Mmm? What sat pictures do you derive this from? 68-100-190-56 15:58, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::::Meh, looking at it again I think I'm wrong. Cyclone1(16:24 UTC -15/08/2007) ::Texas really doesn't need this. It'll cool them off but many rivers in Texas remain above flood stage. -- SkyFury 21:08, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::I think the figure is around half, though I'm probably off by about 25% either way. Anyway, this season is beginning to get evil. 68-100-190-56 21:40, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::::The tropics'll do that to you. And besides, flooding could turn out to be minimal, we don't really know. And Dean could become big in the Caribbean and not greatly affect land areas. 05's Emily certainly knocked Mexico around, but it wasn't exactly guilty of genocide. It's August and the active cycle hasn't gone away. When the tropics are hot, you're going to have threats like this. -- SkyFury 23:55, 15 August 2007 (UTC) Hits with 40- 43 mph winds. Look at that on the sat pictures, almost like a non-trop MCS. Texas might be in for it. Hope this isn't another Allison (I give it a 4% chance of being one). 68-100-190-56 02:56, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :Sat is at 0 hours to landfall. I just discovered this, but there it is, makin' landfall on Texas with winds of up to 40 mph. It's organized as well. This'll make hell for Southern and Western Texas, not to mention Oklahoma. 68-100-190-56 11:13, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::Last advisory written. Cyclone1(14:39 UTC -16/08/2007) :::Erin sure doesn't want to be forgotten, it's flooding out Texas. Cyclone1(15:17 UTC -17/08/2007) "It's sort of runnin' outta water. The Gulf Coast isn't that far. Cyclone1 seems to think it's headed to Texas, but it lookes to me like it's going north. -- 24.98.83.29 02:35, 14 August 2007 (UTC)" -- Hehehe. Sorry, I love being right. First time since Beryl I've been right about landfall before a storm was classified. Cyclone1(15:24 UTC -17/08/2007) Week 3 AoI: Another Day, Another (African) Wave Excuse the length of the title, but it does appear another wave is ready to come off of the coast, and not only that, but a few models develop an Invest-equivalent low, with practically all of them putting something in the Central Atlantic. I'm not exactly sure if this is really that big, but the convection on land does look promising. 68-100-190-56 13:36, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :I don't see anything of interest out there, but if there is a low with any convection with it and the conditions are as good a NHC is saying they are for Dean, then I could see something forming. -- SkyFury 15:22, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::This might just be a problem with the models, but I'm not sure (every single one develops it into at least a low, not necessarily closed off, but a low), since it would be quite a coincidence. I would, however, suspect than anything there would have somewhat of a chance of forming. 68-100-190-56 15:29, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::GFS turns it into a hurricane after Dean's second landfall. Link. 68-100-190-56 11:31, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Doesn't seem too likely, it develops it at a record low latitude. Cyclone1(14:45 UTC -16/08/2007) It doesn't, does it? But other models develop it higher. I'm not sure the low would track that far south anyway. It certainly is possible though. 68-100-190-56 16:00, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :CMC runs it into Georgia/Carolinas as a hurricane, developing much higher. Still can't figure out what it's developing though. 68-100-190-56 17:21, 16 August 2007 (UTC) INVEST reports Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC) :Not as far as I know. Bob rulz 17:26, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Interesting models I don't know if this is important, but I found a very interesting Fujiwhara interaction on an eight day old CMC forecast. Link 68-100-190-56 16:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :Edit - If anyone finds any really interesting models, it could be interesting to group them here. Here's one of four cyclones forming (again from CMC): Link 68-100-190-56 16:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::Gotta love the CMC. Bob rulz 17:19, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :::The most recent one turns Dean into a cat 5. 68-100-190-56 18:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::I wouldn't rule that out. Bob rulz 18:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC) I would trust the CMC on that count at this point. 68-100-190-56 21:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC)